Wednesday, June 27, 2012

No more Debby...concentrating on swim weather

The last official statement on TC Debby was issued at issued at 5 pm EDT. So long, farewell.
This issue of the blog will concentrate on the winds and seas across the Florida Straits for Penny Palfrey swim from Cuba to the Keys. The following links are from the GFS and WaveWatch guidance respectively.
10 meter winds, MSLP, and 6 hour precipitation from the GFS guidance
WaveWatch significant wave heights and wind guidance
The Gulf Stream has spread and engulfs most of the straits as seen from the NDDDC Gulf of Mexico Ecoviewer, the wide view then the zoom in.

I spoke with Captains Bob and John this morning about the Thursday start. I have seen satellite altimetry that shows at least 8 to 10 foot seas being refracted around the western tip of Cuba which experience shows would produce a residual swell across at least the western Straits. My thoughts would be to aim for Friday morning as the southerly fetch will allow seas to lay down very quickly. The wind and wave forecast looks great through Monday and is best Saturday and Sunday. A tropical wave is being advertised in the central Atlantic about 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands and doesn't show up in the Caribbean for 6 days.

Tides are important for the swim obviously and the Havana tide table for the 28th, and Key West tide tables and 28th and 29th.

 I wish I could produce better conditions for the swim but this is just about as good as it gets on the Florida Straits. I look forward to greeting you Keys side!

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