Sunday, May 27, 2012

Tropical Storm Beryl:

The visible satellite image says a great deal about the accuracy of forecast by the National Hurricane Center. # days ago we had a meandering system that was not truly tropical with a large amount of environmental shear aloft in a somewhat extra tropical mode. The forecast was for and consolidation of the system into a tropical storm as the associated trough lifted out to the northeast. Then a ridge building across New England would drive the system southwestward toward the Georgia / Florida coast. Obviously this was a very good forecast and on a storm that had no clear cut motion when it was started. 15 years ago this would have been a much more unclear forecast event than currently which reflects well on the professionalism at NHC.

As for Beryl, the storm is acting as it should be with verified surface winds gusting to 45 to 50 know at the Sea Buoy 41012

5-day plot - Wind DirectionWind Direction (WDIR):N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind SpeedWind Speed (WSPD):36.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind GustWind Gust (GST):46.6 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric PressureAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):29.55 in
5-day plot - Pressure TendencyPressure Tendency (PTDY):-0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air TemperatureAir Temperature (ATMP):75.2 °F
5-day plot - Water TemperatureWater Temperature (WTMP):77.7 °F
5-day plot - Dew PointDew Point (DEWP):70.9 °F

The storm has a very good circulation with not much convection surrounding the core. The satellite loop is still impressive and there are tropical storm warnings along the coast from Volusia Brevard county line to Edisto Beach South Carolina.
Beryl will likely move onto the Florida coast near St. Augustine tonight then emerge off the Carolina coast near Cape Fear or Myrtle Beach Wednesday morning due to a weak trough crossing the eastern United States and a ridge building over the western Atlantic. Beryl will then increase forward motion toward the northeast and out to sea. During this time it is likely Beryl will transition into an extra tropical storm.

The limited convection surrounding the core is a good thing for rainfall estimates that are holding around 3 to 6 inches associated with the land falling storm. The link below is to the Jacksonville Florida radar, KJAX.

I do not want to minimize the impacts of Beryl on the area and since these are rarely occurring events in the Jacksonville area I have little basis for suggestions on how to react. For this reason the best source for information is to view you local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office for their hurricane local statements. These would be the following offices and links to each home page as follows:
Melbourne, Florida
and the hurricane local statement:
Jacksonville, Florida:
and the video hurricane local statement:
Charleston, South Carolina:

It looks like the impacts from Beryl will be typical of a weak, slow moving Tropical Storm with ample rainfall, winds between 40 to 65 mph, flooding, and power outages. Do not minimize your response and be safe. The official authority for hurricane forecasts, watches and warnings is the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, and your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office.

Be safe,

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