Wednesday, May 23, 2012

There has certainly been some early development in the Atlantic so far this season. As usual with these early season vorticies, they have been unimpressive. Invest AL94 is extremely unlikely that there will be any development of this as a tropical system. The surface circulation is devoid of convection due to the large scale shear of at least 50 knots over the area. There is a large scale trough crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the amount of dry air in the column will subdue even the cloud line showers that try to break through the cap along the Keys Island Chain.
Visible Satellite image of suspect area
A look at water vapor imagery shows a distinct gradient between the dry air west and moist column east of the circulation.
Water vapor image from GOES East
Closer view of the vapor imagery

As usual too, the only official authority for hurricane forecasts, watches and warnings are the National Hurricane Center,, and your local National Weather Service Office,
I will keep you updated as schedule and conditions dictate.
Be safe and be prepared.

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