Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Hi everyone,

There is a lot of discussion about the possible low pressure system developing over Cuba and moving northward through the Straits of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is little consensus in the models, a lot of inconsistencies in the run to run of the forecasts as well. There is also an immense ridge of high pressure across the eastern half of the United States that the models forecasting this event want to push the low through.
The model with the best solution as I see it is the UK-Met which has a weak inverted trough sliding across Cuba on the southern edge of the ridge mentioned above.
What is more realistic is that a mid to upper level trough will move out of TX toward the southeast and an upper low develops providing ample moisture and enough instability to give the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle some high rainfall amounts. The media and some others are maybe making more out of this than needed. So if you live in an area that floods with high amounts or heavy rainfall, you know what to do.
This system will not be tropical in nature and even though we should be prepared, we don't need to panic.
Take the appropriate actions and be ready for lots of rain, a little wind, and some flooding along inland, poor drainage, and low lying areas.
No graphics to show for this issue, there system hasn't developed yet. I could be wrong with this in that what develops may not be as bad as I'm saying. It certainly won't be as bad as the hype I've heard the past couple of days.


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