Monday, October 17, 2011

Good evening,

What a difference in the last 8 hours. This morning I would have bet the farm that NHC would name
invest 95L this afternoon. Air Force hurricane  hunters found no surface circulation in the suspect area north of the western tip of Cuba. That is great news...but...the mid level circulation is trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico and will begin to be influenced by a vigorous trough crossing the northern Gulf Coast during the next 72 hours. The trough will take the mid level feature northeastward toward the Bug Bend of Florida. No tropical characteristics will be associated with the system but there is plentiful moisture available as evidence by the record breaking rainfall amounts over the Lower Keys during the past 24 hours. The previous record occurred in 1910 as the category 3 to 4 hurricane of October 17 passed just west of Key West producing 4.08 inches of rainfall. There has been 6.55 inches since midnight and more expected. With this in mind expect that there will be another couple of days of rainy conditions across Florida similar to last week with small craft advisory conditions spread across the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Peninsula. The following animation shows the evolution of the forecast through 96 hours.

video

Sorry I haven't posted during the last few days, the last 3 mid-nights have been a little rough, last night was a very long night. Check out the products from www.srh.noaa.gov/key warning products from overnight.
Stay tuned,
Bill

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