Thursday, October 6, 2011

A bit more common sense has risen in the European model this morning. A solution that I can live with and that is much more palpable than the past few days. As I spoke about yesterday the models have a low developing south of Cuba and this is still going to happen. We will discount the GFS for now as the next few runs of this model will come into alignment with the ECMWF later I'm certain. The weak low which will reside aloft with not much of a surface reflection. There is enough moisture and energy being pumped into the system to allow for a significant rain event across much of Florida beginning over the southern peninsula Sunday then spreading slowly through the east panhandle and north Florida by Wednesday at which time it is absorbed by a trough moving across the southern United States. See graphics animation below.

video
Clicking on the 4 arrows on the bottom right of the video will make it full screen.

Some questions about the weekend of the 15th in central west Florida and it may still be a little wet as the trough may stall over the peninsula. Will keep this in my thoughts and update as we get closer.
Let me know through email or follow the blog if you have any questions.

BC

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