Friday, September 23, 2011

Good evening,

Ophelia is still struggling with a strongly sheared environment even though it looks like convection is beginning to settle in closer to the center. The two images included are of the current shear and the shear tendency. Currently there is 20 to 40 knots of shear aloft under cutting the outflow and blowing the tops off any convection to the northeast of the center.

The shear tendency is on the increase as well which leads me to believe there is little hope for Ophelia to survive much longer. The latest aircraft RECON show 32 knots flight level winds which is a much weaker system than yesterday.

Images are from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin and the official authority for hurricane forecasts, warnings and coordination of watches is the National Hurricane Center.

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